前沿 | Journal of Politics（政治学杂志）Number 4 - October 2019
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让每位闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
前沿 | Journal of Politics（政治学杂志）Number 4 - October 2019（上）
本期国际化部为大家带来了《政治学杂志》2019年第4期文章编译（下）。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART
一
期刊简介
Journal of Politics（政治学杂志）是美国南方政治科学协会（SPSA）旗下学术期刊，目前由芝加哥大学出版社代为出版。期刊创刊于1939年，出版周期为每年4期，期刊收录范围涵盖政治科学相关的所有细分学科。
期刊研究领域和收录范围包：美国政治、比较政治学、国际关系、政治学理论、政治学方法论。
PART
二
期刊目录
Greasing the Wheels of Commerce? Corruption and Foreign Investment
给商业贸易的车轮润滑？腐败与外国投资
The Tolerance of Tamils: War-Related Experiences, Psychological Pathways, and the Probability of Granting Civil Liberties to Former Enemies
泰米尔人的宽容：战争相关的经验、心路历程以及授予先前的敌人公民自由的可能性
The Political Weaponization of Gun Owners: The National Rifle Association’s Cultivation, Dissemination, and Use of a Group Social Identity
枪支拥有者的政治武器化：美国全国步枪协会对团体社会身份的培育、传播和利用
On Board with Banks: Do Banking Connections Help Politicians Win Elections?
担任银行董事会成员：与银行的联系是否有助于政客赢得选举？
Infectious Disease, Disgust, and Imagining the Other
传染病，厌恶和对他者的想象
What Makes Foreign Policy Teams Tick: Explaining Variation in Group Performance at Geopolitical Forecasting
外交政策团队是如何决策的：解释团队在地缘政治预测中绩效的差异
The Electoral Appeal of Party Strategies in Postindustrial Societies: When Can the Mainstream Left Succeed?
后工业社会中政党纲领在选举中的吸引力：主流左翼何时才能成功？
E Pluribus Unum? How Ethnic and National Identity Motivate Individual Reactions to a Political Ideal
合众为一？族群与国家认同如何激发个体对政治理想的反应
Fiscal Capacity and Inequality: Evidence from Brazilian Municipalities
财政能力和不平等：来自巴西市政当局的证据
Places to Hide: Terrain, Ethnicity, and Civil Conflict
藏身之地：地形，族群与内战
Military Coalitions and Crisis Duration
军事同盟与危机持续时间
Gendered Political Contexts: The Gender Gap in Political Knowledge
具有性别差异的政治环境：政治知识中的性别差距
Who Revolts? Empirically Revisiting the Social Origins of Democracy
反叛者是谁？对民主的社会根源的实证回顾
Governing Coalition Partners’ Images Shift in Parallel but Do Not Converge
执政联盟伙伴的形象并行变化而不汇聚
PART
三
精选译文
01 给商业贸易的车轮润滑？腐败与外国投资
【题目】
Greasing the Wheels of Commerce? Corruption and Foreign Investment
【作者】
Boliang Zhu，Pennsylvania State University
Weiyi Shi，University of California, San Diego
【摘要】
大量的学术辩论对腐败的真正后果进行了探讨。最近的研究认为，可预见的腐败（指那些行贿者能够确保得到政府服务的情形）与那些武断的腐败（指那些官员只是简单掠夺的情形）相比，前者不那么扭曲而且更能提高效率。然而，实证证据参差不齐。通过在一个最初的中国公司调查中嵌入一个小实验，我们发现海外投资者往往认为腐败是有害的。证据表明，高生产率和固定资产密集型的投资者倾向于认为可预见的腐败比武断的腐败要更好。此外我们发现，与武断的腐败相比，可预见的腐败并没有显著提高市场准入的可能性，但是增加了持有过半股权的可能性。总体而言，结果显示，即便在最有可能的情形下，腐败也没有“给商贸的车轮润滑”，而且可预见的腐败所带来的可感知的收益是有限的。
There are considerable scholarly debates regarding the real consequences of corruption. Recent studies have argued that predictable corruption, in which bribers are guaranteed the delivery of government services, is less distortional and more efficiency-enhancing than arbitrary corruption in which officials engage in simple plunder. Yet the empirical evidence is mixed. By leveraging a vignette experiment embedded in an original firm survey in China, we find that overseas investors always consider corruption detrimental. There is some evidence that high-productivity and fixed-asset intensive investors might view predictable corruption more favorably than arbitrary corruption. Additionally, we find that compared to arbitrary corruption, predictable corruption is not associated with a significantly higher probability of market entry, but it increases the likelihood of majority ownership. Overall, the results provide little evidence that corruption “greases the wheels of commerce” even in a most likely case and suggest that the perceived benefits of predictable corruption are limited.
02 泰米尔人的宽容：战争相关的经验、心路历程以及授予先前的敌人公民自由的可能性
【题目】
The Tolerance of Tamils: War-Related Experiences, Psychological Pathways, and the Probability of Granting Civil Liberties to Former Enemies
【作者】
Carolin Rapp，University of Copenhagen
Sara Kijewski and Markus Freitag，University of Bern
【摘要】
本文评估了1983到2009年的内战后斯里兰卡在战争经历和政治宽容的形成之间的心理历程。在迄今为止的政治科学文献中，几乎没有关于政治经历、人们的心理历程和政治宽容形成之间的相互作用。我们使用了2016年以来的调查数据，评估了战争经历所带来的心理后果，区分了与战争相关的创伤和创伤后成长的问题。我们根据路径模型得出的结果表明，战争经历并不会一致地损害政治宽容：创伤后成长的经历作为一个被广泛讨论的现象，会让个体更有可能去赋予敌对群体以基本的公民自由。
This article evaluates the psychological pathways between war exposure and the formation of political tolerance in Sri Lanka after the civil war between 1983 and 2009. To date, little is known in the political science literature about the interplay between war experiences, their psychological footprints, and the formation of political tolerance. Using survey data from 2016, we are able to evaluate the psychological consequences of war experiences, differentiating between the issues of both war-related distress and posttraumatic growth. Our results based on path models reveal that war exposure does not uniformly damage political tolerance: experiences of posttraumatic growth, a highly discussed phenomenon, are able to increase an individual’s probability of granting basic civil liberties to an opposing group.
03 枪支拥有者的政治武器化：美国全国步枪协会对团体社会身份的培育、传播和利用
【题目】
Getting Rich Too Fast? Voters’ Reactions to Politicians’ Wealth Accumulation
【作者】
Matthew J. Lacombe，Barnard College, Columbia University
【摘要】
大量证据表明，NRA（美国全国步枪协会）的政治影响力与少数反对严格控枪法案的美国人对政治的深入参与密切相关。然而，这种对NRA影响力的解释提出了自己的问题，也就是说，为什么枪支拥有者如此忠诚于他们的事业，以及为什么NRA能如此有效地动员他们？我整理了近九十年的大量证据，以证明枪支拥有者开展政治活动的一个重要原因是NRA长期培养并传播了一个独特的、政治化了的枪支拥有者的社会身份。借此，NRA得以动员代表其自身的大众政治活动。我的发现为利益集团开发和使用资源的能力提供了新的见解，而这些资源可以通过改变社会成员的政治行为帮助利益集团影响政策。
There is substantial evidence indicating that the NRA’s (National Rifle Association) political influence is closely tied to the deep political engagement of the minority of Americans who oppose strict gun control laws. This explanation of the NRA’s influence, however, raises its own questions; namely, why are gun owners so devoted to their cause, and why is the NRA so effective at mobilizing them? I marshal a wide range of evidence covering nearly nine decades to demonstrate that an important cause of the political activity of gun owners is the NRA’s long-term cultivation and dissemination of a distinct, politicized gun owner social identity, which the NRA uses to mobilize mass political action on its behalf. My findings shed new light on the ability of interest groups to develop and use resources that help them influence policy by altering the political behavior of members of the mass public.
04 担任银行董事会成员：与银行的联系是否有助于政客赢得选举？
【题目】
On Board with Banks: Do Banking Connections Help Politicians Win Elections?
【作者】
Jonas Markgraf Hertie，School of Governance and University of Oxford
Guillermo Rosas，Washington University in St. Louis
【摘要】
政治家会因为与银行的联系在选举中受益吗？最近的研究阐明了银行是如何从政治关系中受益的，但我们对与银行的关系对政治人物连任机会的影响仍知之甚少。我们基于对德国公有地方储蓄银行系统的分析，评估担任银行董事会成员的地方政客是否更有可能代表所在政党获得连任。根据2006年至2015年间3214场市长选举和182个储蓄银行的数据，我们发现，在储蓄银行中拥有董事会席位的市长获得连任的可能性要高于没有董事会席位的市长。我们解决了有关未被察觉的干扰因素的问题，并证明董事会成员身份给竞选带来的优势集中于保守派市长中。我们还提供了初步证据，表明隶属于银行董事会的市长增加了对其市政当局银行的捐款，并防止了其分支机构的倒闭，这有助于我们理解为什么选民再次选举他们。
Do politicians benefit electorally from connections to banks? Recent research illuminates how banks benefit from political connections, yet we do not know much about the impact of bank connections on a politician’s reelection chances. We consider the German system of publicly owned local savings banks to assess whether local politicians who sit on bank boards are likelier to win reelection for their parties. Based on data from 3,214 mayoral elections and 182 savings banks between 2006 and 2015, we find that mayors with a board seat in a savings bank have higher odds of winning reelection than mayors without a board seat. We address concerns about unobserved confounders and show that the electoral benefits of board membership are concentrated among conservative mayors. We also present preliminary evidence that mayors in bank boards increase bank donations to, and prevent branch closures in, their municipalities, which helps us understand why voters reelect them.
05 后工业社会中政党纲领在选举中的吸引力：主流左翼何时才能成功？
【题目】
The Electoral Appeal of Party Strategies in Postindustrial Societies: When Can the Mainstream Left Succeed?
【作者】
Tarik Abou-Chadi，University of Zurich
Markus Wagner，University of Vienna
【摘要】
近期的选举重新激发了有关社会民主主义之衰落的争论，而这通常归因于工人阶级数量的萎缩，及其对主流左派经济中心主义和社会自由主义的政策立场的疏远。为了解释这些政党命运的变化，我们认为研究人员需要分析主要选举团体在政治竞争中关键议题上的偏好，以及信息传递中介在塑造这些偏好中的作用。具体而言，我们认为（1）主流左派政党可以通过采取更多投资导向的政策立场赢得选举，假使他们（2）同时在社会文化立场上采纳自由主义，并且（3）没有面临有影响力的工会的反对。汇总的选举结果和个人层面的调查结果都支持了这些设想。我们的发现对于理解发达民主国家的政党成功以及更普遍含义上政党竞争的实证模型具有重要的意义。
Recent elections have revived the debate about the decline of social democracy, often attributed to the numerical decline in the working class and its alienation due to the mainstream left’s economically centrist and socially liberal policy stances. To explain changes in these parties’ fortunes, we instead argue that researchers need to analyze the preferences of key electoral groups on the main axes of political competition and the role of information-transmitting intermediaries in shaping these preferences. Specifically, we suggest that (1) mainstream left parties can win votes by taking up more investment-oriented positions if they (2) also take up liberal sociocultural positions and (3) do not face opposition from influential unions. We find support for these expectations using aggregate-level election results and individual-level survey responses. Our findings have important implications for our understanding of party success in advanced democracies and for empirical models of party competition more generally.
06 财政能力和不平等：来自巴西市政当局的证据
【题目】
Fiscal Capacity and Inequality: Evidence from Brazilian Municipalities
【作者】
Florian M. Hollenbach，Texas A&M University
Thiago N. Silva，University of Mannheim
【摘要】
我们认为，民主国家的富裕精英阶层可以通过抑制国家的财政能力减少他们的纳税。即便在选民支持法律上更高的税收的时候，贿赂地方官员并削弱财政能力仍是高收入者借以减轻自己纳税责任的一些方法。当不平等的程度很高时，削弱财政能力的激励尤为显著，因为中间选民可能会支持更高的累进税率和再分配。使用来自5500多个巴西市政当局的数据，我们发现，不平等程度更高的地方从地方财产税中得到的财政收入更少。这些结果对于估计多个横截面模型以及面板模型的时间和地区的固定效应是稳健的。此外，我们表明，不平等程度高的市政当局更少申请联邦拨款方案以提升其征税能力。
We argue that wealthy elites in democracies can limit their taxes by constraining the fiscal capacity of the state. Corrupting local officials and undermining fiscal capacity are some of the mechanisms by which high-income earners can lower their own tax liabilities, even when voters favor higher de jure levels of taxation. The incentive to undermine fiscal capacity is especially compelling when inequality is high, as the median voter is likely to support higher progressive taxation and redistribution. Using data from over 5,500 Brazilian municipalities, we show that localities with higher levels of inequality accrue less revenue from local property taxes. These results are robust to estimating a number of cross-sectional models as well as panel models with time and municipal fixed effects. Moreover, we show that municipalities with high levels of inequality are less likely to apply to a federal grant program to increase their capacity to collect taxes.
07 军事同盟与危机持续时间
【题目】
Military Coalitions and Crisis Duration
【作者】
Daina Chiba，University of Essex
Jesse C. Johnson，University of Kentucky
【摘要】
在国际危机期间组建军事同盟可以提高一个国家实现其政治目标的几率。然而，我们认为，由于使谈判过程复杂化并延长危机的持续时间，联盟的介入会对危机的结果产生预想不到的不利影响。这一论点表明，涉及军事联盟的危机会比不存在联盟的危机持续更长时间。但是，其他影响危机持续时间的因素也可能会影响联盟的形成。因此，将联盟存在的内生性纳入考虑对于检验我们的假设至关重要。为了应对这一推论上的挑战，我们开发了一种新的统计模型，该模型是对生存分析中工具变量估测的扩展。我们对二战后255次国家间危机的分析表明，即使考虑到了联盟形成的内生性，军事联盟仍会将危机的持续时间延长约284天。
Forming a military coalition during an international crisis can improve a state’s chances of achieving its political goals. We argue that the involvement of a coalition, however, can have unintended adverse effects on crisis outcomes by complicating the bargaining process and extending the duration of crises. This argument suggests that crises involving coalitions should be significantly longer than crises without coalitions. However, other factors that affect crisis duration are also likely to influence coalition formation. Therefore, taking into account the endogeneity of the presence of a coalition is essential to testing our hypothesis. To deal with this inferential challenge, we develop a new statistical model that is an extension of instrumental variable estimation in survival analysis. Our analysis of 255 post–World War II interstate crises demonstrates that, even after accounting for the endogeneity of coalition formation, military coalitions tend to extend the duration of crises by approximately 284 days.
08 反叛者是谁？对民主的社会根源的实证回顾
【题目】
Who Revolts? Empirically Revisiting the Social Origins of Democracy
【作者】
Sirianne Dahlum，Peace Research Institute Oslo, PRIO
Carl Henrik Knutsen and Tore Wig，University of Oslo
【摘要】
一些著名的说法表明，当针对现有政权的反对运动是由特定的社会团体领导的时候，民主转型更有可能发生。我们进一步发展了该论点，指出由工业工人或城市中产阶级主导的反对派运动具有实现民主化所必需的动力和能力。为了系统地检验这一论点，我们收集了有关1900年至2006年全球反政权的反对派运动中社会构成的新数据。我们发现，与其他运动和缺乏有组织的大众反对的情况相比，由这些城市团体其中一支主导的运动更可能导向民主。不出所料，这种关系在城市比在农村社会中更强劲，且在近几十年来更显著。当进一步区分这些群体并寻求合理的替代解释时，工业工人运动与民主化之间的关系非常稳固，而有关中产阶级运动（之影响力）的证据则好坏参半。
Several prominent accounts suggest that democratic transitions are more likely to take place when opposition to the incumbent regime is led by certain social groups. We further develop the argument that opposition movements dominated by industrial workers or the urban middle classes have both the requisite motivation and capacity to bring about democratization. To systematically test this argument, we collect new data on the social composition of antiregime opposition movements, globally from 1900 to 2006. We find that movements dominated by one of these urban groups more often result in democracy, both when compared to other movements and to situations without organized mass opposition. As expected, the relationship is stronger in urban than rural societies, and in more recent decades. When further differentiating the groups and accounting for plausible alternative explanations, the relationship between industrial worker campaigns and democratization is very robust, whereas the evidence is mixed for middle-class campaigns.
编 译：吴佳蔚，袁丁
校 对：吴佳蔚，袁丁，王志浩
相关阅读：
编辑：欧阳星
一审：郑 静
二审：宋 婷
点击“阅读原文”，输入“9t8t”，可免费获取本期英文原文哦~